Business Monitor International tips RB to win 2011 elections

July 28, 2011

THE Business Monitor International Limited (BMI) has predicted that President Banda will easily win this year’s elections as a reward for his government’s recent economic achievements and says grassroots support for the MMD remains strong.

And the organisation says the turbulent past of opposition Patriotic Front (PF) president Michael Sata is likely to prove to be his liability in the polls, and that his national support has fallen since 2008.

The reputable global research organisation, involved in economic, political and social research across the world, has made the predictions in its review of southern Africa for August 2011.

“Programmes to facilitate the use of fertilisers and high-quality seeds have helped to generate two record maize harvests in the past two seasons – an achievement that cannot be overstated in the largely rural country,” the BMI says.

“The government’s efforts promise to increase formal employment, diversify the economy, broaden the tax base and lower poverty levels and we believe that the electorate will reward (President) Banda and his MMD party at the polls,” the organisation says.

It says clearly, grassroots support for the MMD has remained strong because of Government’s progressive programmes aimed at benefitting ordinary citizens and reducing poverty.

 

The BMI reports that because of the increase in the number of beneficiaries of subsidised farm inputs under the Farmer Input Support Programme (FISP) from 500,000 to 890,000 small-scale farmers in the last farming season, the country has witnessed increased participation in food-based agriculture.

“The scheme (FISP) has seen agricultural production soar and this year’s maize harvest is expected to reach over three million tonnes, an improvement on the record 2.8 million tonnes last year.

“The improvements will help stave off food insecurity plaguing other parts of Africa,” the organisation says.

It also notes a huge increase in the number of registered voters from 3.9 million in 2006 to 5.2 million this year, which it attributes to a rising generation of constituents just reaching voting age and increased voter enthusiasm.

On Mr Sata, the BMI says although the PF leader has campaigned aggressively in Western Province lately, he remains a controversial figure who has often expressed admiration for an unpopular president of an African country.

The BMI also says Mr Sata’s anti-foreign sentiment in populist appeals threaten to undermine Zambia’s impressive growth story.

“While recent comments have sought to attract more moderate voters, Sata’s turbulent past will likely prove to be a liability, and his national support has likely fallen since 2008,” it says.

“The MMD has demonstrated that it is still a force to reckon with in local elections, where it has won 62 of 110 wards (compared with United Party for National Development’s 24 and the PF’s 22),” the BMI report says.

It adds that the bickering between the PF and the UPND following the demise of their electoral pact has damaged both opposition parties’ chances.

The BMI was founded in 1984 by Richard Londesborough and Jonathan Feroze, the company’s joint chief executive officers, and is based in Blackfriars, London, with foreign offices in New York and Singapore.

It has customers in more than 140 countries worldwide and has provided reliable analyses, data and forecasts to businesses, banks, financial services companies, governments, academia and research centres.

It was awarded the ‘Queen’s Award for Export Achievement’ in 1997.

The positive prediction comes hot on the heels of the assessment by the International Monetary Fund of the country’s economic programme as “robust and broad-based”, and its reclassification as a lower middle-income country by the World Bank, both in a space of one month.